As The Pavlovic Today predicted yesterday, Tom Tugendhat was eliminated last night from the race for Britain’s next Prime Minister.

Shortly before 8 pm on Monday, the Conservative members of the UK Parliament flocked into committee room 14 to hear the results of their vote in the political race for the leadership of the Conservative Party and Britain’s next Prime Minister. Sir Graham Brady announced the tally confirming that Tom Tugendhat did not make it to the next round.

Whose vote is going to collapse next today?

In Westminster, The Pavlovic Today has been talking to the voting members of the parliament in the leadership race, and they all came up with different predictions revealing that no one really knows how the next round of elimination will turn out. 


Tom Tugendhat, an MP with a background in military service and a deep understanding of global affairs, was eliminated despite his merit and good performance in the debates. The votes of his supporters are now up for grabs.

Penny Mordaunt, who emerged as the frontrunner during the first and second debates, went down by one vote last night, leaving her with 82 votes. Her people were calling MPs in a panic to ensure her vote does not collapse today. Mordaunt’s s team is hoping to pick up Tom Tugendhat’s votes. “I can’t see Tom supporting Liz Truss,” said a source in the UK Parliament. After all, Tugendhat had run on a platform to offer a “clean start’ and discontinuation with Boris Johnson’s government. 

“My prediction is that Liz Truss will be out today,” another Conservative MP told The Pavlovic Today. Then, an MP who supports Liz Truss said, “I do not see this happening.”

Kemi Badenoch was expected to go out today. Still, she is gaining more support from wealthy donors and votes from the party’s more conservative members as they believe she’s “a real conservative,” as one of the MPs who support her told The Pavlovic Today. 

“Kemi is good for the culture wars,” said an MP who supports her. “You cant run the country on culture wars,” his colleague snapped back. 

Labour is betting that Rishi Sunak will win, as the polished former Chancellor has a broader appeal to lead Britain on the global stage. The obstacle Rishi has now is that Boris Johnson does not want his former Chancellor to succeed. The outgoing Prime Minister still has a lot of sway over the MPs who are his ride-or-die supporters.

Judging by the predictions Members of the Parliament made, nothing is certain. No one except Rishi Sunak, who gained 14 votes last night and remains a frontrunner is safe to get into the final round.


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Ksenija Pavlovic McAteer

Ksenija Pavlovic is the Founder and Editor-in-Chief of the Pavlovic Today, The Chief White House Correspondent. Pavlovic was a Teaching Fellow and Doctoral Fellow in the Political Science department...

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