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On the thirteenth day of the shutdown, GOP and the Democrats are nowhere close to a deal.
Good morning from the White House, and the thirteenth day of the shutdown.
Pretty quiet so far, with nothing on the guidance.
Pool caught the last three minutes of brief driveway remarks by Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers:
On the economic impacts of the shutdown, Hassett said the federal government worker furloughs could translate to “a big negative” in the January jobs numbers. But those workers will ultimately be paid, he added.
“So, what we’ll say if we were to see that negative number is, ‘Well, sure it was negative this, but if you adjust for the furlough, it looks like another plus-200 month,’” he said.
Hassett estimated that GDP in the first quarter could go down by about one-tenth, if the shutdown is resolved by next week.
His rule of thumb is a one-tenth reduction every two weeks. However, he added that while that’s true for real GDP, it won’t be felt in the nominal GDP as long as the workers ultimately get paid.
Hassett was asked about the general uncertainty of the government shutdown fueling market volatility.
He said: “I think when we’ve seen the markets move a heck of a lot on shutdown news in the past, it’s because the shutdown has been coincident with the debt limit negotiations, and the debt limit negotiations really raises the stakes. But right now, it’s just a shutdown for a quarter of the government and, you know, they are leaving the national parks mostly open. So the private-sector repercussions seem like they are going to be pretty small.”
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