The image of five men sitting around a table in Saudi Arabia discussing the end of a war that has reshaped the global order was quite startling moment of history. Diplomatic engagement between the United States and Russia took a significant step forward on Tuesday, as the two nations agreed on a framework for renewed dialogue and potential peace talks over Ukraine.
For three and a half years, the United States and Russia were under diplomatic standoffs. Today’s meeting, Secretary Rubio explained, was a deliberate effort to change that—a direct follow-up to the President’s call last week, intended to revive long-dormant lines of communication.
As he left the meeting, Rubio underscored that the ultimate peace deal rests in the hands of President Donald Trump.
“In just a few months, President Trump has shifted the entire global conversation from not if the war is going to end, but just how it’s going to end. Only President Trump can do that,” Rubio declared in Riyadh.
After four hours of discussions in Saudi Arabia, Rubio outlined four key principles aimed at re-establishing a working relationship with Moscow. These include the full restoration of embassy operations in Washington and Moscow, the initiation of negotiations to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, and a commitment to exploring economic and geopolitical cooperation.
The meeting, which saw Rubio joined by National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, included Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and presidential aide Yuri Ushakov on the other side of the table. While the tone was described as “constructive,” it remains unclear whether the talks represent a substantive shift in Russia’s approach to the conflict or a strategic play to extract concessions.
Rubio hinted that a settlement could involve the lifting of some economic sanctions—a development that would mark a significant victory for Moscow. For Vladimir Putin, the ultimate objective remains the lifting of Western sanctions, with Washington having led the charge in imposing them. Such a prospect is likely to cause unease among European leaders and other allies, who will be wary of any shift in U.S. policy that could weaken the European alliance against Russia.
Europe and Ukraine increasingly feel sidelined—not just by the substance of these talks, but by the manner in which they are unfolding. The absence of Kyiv from the discussions will only heighten anxieties in European capitals, where there are growing concerns that any eventual settlement could be shaped more by Washington and Moscow than by Ukraine itself.
Rubio stressed however that any deal would require compromises from all sides in order to reach a peace deal that would be “fair, enduring, sustainable and acceptable to all parties involved”.
Notably absent from these early discussions was Ukraine itself. Ukraine views these developments as a betrayal—one that could have a direct impact on the morale of its soldiers on the battlefield. But the question is no longer just about Europe’s level of commitment to supporting Ukraine; it is now a matter of political will. Divisions within Europe were laid bare at yesterday’s emergency meeting in Paris, where Sir Keir Starmer’s proposal to deploy troops to Ukraine was swiftly rejected by Germany.
For now, the process remains in its infancy. While diplomatic channels have been re-opened, no date has yet been set for a direct meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
NATO capitals will be watching with a blend of unease and weary pragmatism, knowing full well that any deal struck over their heads could reshape the balance of power on the continent. The worry, of course, is that this ends not with peace, but with Ukraine being strong-armed into accepting terms dictated elsewhere. President Zelensky has already made it clear that Kyiv will not be railroaded into a settlement it did not negotiate. But whether that conviction holds against the gravitational pull of great-power diplomacy is another matter entirely.
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