The Monmouth University poll finds that nearly half of the electorate thinks that President Joe Biden will be replaced as the Democratic nominee on the presidential ballot in November. Twenty percent of pollsters said it is “very likely” Biden will be replaced, and 28 percent of pollsters said it was “somewhat likely.”
Many attributed Biden’s age, physical health, or mental faculties as reasons he will be replaced as the Democratic Party, and Republican voters believed Biden would be pushed aside by his own party.
Comparatively, only one-third of pollsters believed Trump will be replaced as the Republican nominee—10% of pollsters said “very likely” and 22% said “somewhat likely.” Mostly due to Trump’s legal troubles or his health.
The perceptions of Trump’s physical and mental fitness compared to Biden’s vary, particularly among voters under 70 years old, as opposed to those within the same age group as the candidates.
“Specifically, 45% of those aged 70 and older are at least somewhat confident about Biden’s stamina and a nearly identical 43% say the same about Trump. Conversely, 52% are not confident about Biden’s health, and 53% say the same about Trump. Among those under the age of 70, though, there is a sizable difference between confidence in Trump’s stamina (52%) and Biden’s stamina (30%),” the Monmouth University poll reported.
“It’s interesting that voters in the same age bracket as both candidates don’t see much of a difference in terms of their stamina. But younger voters clearly have different perceptions of the two. This is probably one reason why many think Biden’s name may not be on the ballot in the fall—more than say the same about Trump,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Just over 4 in 10 registered voters say they’ll either definitely (30%) or probably (14%) vote for incumbent Biden in a Biden-Trump rematch. Similarly, pollsters reported that they would definitely (30%) vote or probably (16%) vote for Trump.
These results haven’t changed significantly; both Biden and Trump are seeing statistically insignificant 2 to 4 point increases.
“Younger voters have tended to lean more Democratic in recent elections. The fact that there is little difference in candidate preference among them now indicates that other factors are at play. One of these factors may be perceptions of the candidates’ ages, where Biden is seen in a more negative light than Trump,” said Murray.
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