Alberto Simoni: Don’t Celebrate Too Soon After Orbán

Alberto Simoni, U.S. Bureau Chief for the Italian newspaper La Stampa, covers the White House and American politics at a moment of deep transatlantic uncertainty. A longtime foreign policy editor who spent a decade shaping the paper’s international coverage, Simoni has interviewed—and closely followed—the rise and now the fall of Viktor Orbán. In conversation with The Pavlovic Today, he examines the significance of Orbán’s electoral defeat and what it reveals about Europe’s political trajectory. His latest book, I Ribelli d’Europa, traces the divisions between the Visegrád countries and Western Europe.

The Pavlovic Today: Were you surprised by Orbán losing the election? Why do you think he lost?

Simoni: Orbán’s defeat was predictable. I was not surprised by Viktor Orbán’s defeat, for several reasons. The first concerns the profile of his challenger, Péter Magyar, a 45-year-old who for years was part of Fidesz, Orbán’s ultra-conservative party. He served as a diplomat in Brussels and was married to Judit Varga, Orbán’s former justice minister.

Unlike other opposition leaders who tried to challenge Orbán in previous elections, Magyar is an insider—someone who understands how Orbán exercises power, knows his network, its weaknesses, and even the thinking they once shared. He rose to prominence after leaving Fidesz and denouncing its corruption—scandals that partly involved his ex-wife and President Katalin Novák. He founded the Tisza party, which became a vehicle for cleaning up the system.

The second reason lies in Orbán’s political stagnation. Once again, he relied on rural voters and on subsidies and welfare measures. Orban’s political and electoral offer did not evolve. Faced with scandals that marked recent years and a struggling economy, GDP growth was just 0.3% in 2025 and employment declined, voters chose an alternative. Finally, after 16 years of Orbán, people wanted something new, and better, for the future.

The Pavlovic Today: As a White House correspondent and an expert on Hungary—and someone who interviewed Orbán—how do you assess the impact these election results will have on Europe?

Simoni: It would be a mistake for European left-wing parties to celebrate too much. I would let the dust of enthusiasm settle first across parts of European public opinion and political circles.

The real question is whether Péter Magyar will have the strength and the will to decisively turn the page on some of Orbán’s practices. In his victory speech, only Hungarian flags stood behind him—no European ones. These may seem like minute details, but Magyar is a conservative deeply rooted in Hungarian identity.

I expect that, unlike Orbán, pragmatism and a desire to be part of Europe’s political mainstream will prevail in him—where he can exert influence rather than be labeled a nationalist disruptor. But the real test will come on key issues: social policy, immigration, security, and relations with Zelensky’s Ukraine. That is where both Magyar and the EU will be tested.

The Pavlovic Today: You authored The Rebels of Europe, a book on Orbán—what did you learn about him? What are the main takeaways?

Simoni: I interviewed Orbán on April 29, 2019, a month before the European elections that were framed at the time as a clash between the nationalist Orbán and Macron. I spent four hours with him in the library of the government palace. Although the conversation was largely political, we also spoke extensively—one-on-one—about football, curiosities, books, and religion.

I later authored a book, The Rebels of Europe, about the Visegrád countries and the communication gap on key issues between “Old Europe” and countries that emerged from Soviet rule.

Orbán has a doctrine—an unclouded vision. His government was based on a philosophy widely shared among the population: pride in Hungarian history and identity, and a determination not to be told by external forces how Hungarians should live, or how they should understand faith, religion, traditions, and their place in the world.

I never had the impression that Orbán was anti-European. Rather, he was a fierce opponent of a “globalized” Europe that, in his view, dilutes national identities. For Orbán, there is no federal Europe, but rather an EU that pragmatically combines the limits and weaknesses of individual states into collective strength—through the single market and free trade.

Orbán told me: “The single market is fundamental in this process of building and strengthening the EU. The path taken by the British—Brexit—is not viable for Hungary. However, political integration—the nightmare of a federal Europe—represents another danger.”

The Pavlovic Today: What did Orbán tell you about Trump?

Simoni: With Trump, Orban shared what he described as a “spiritual community.” He appreciated the slogan “America First,” which, as he told me, represents “an open declaration and defense of national interests. Many others pursue their own interests, but do not state it openly. As President Trump has urged, we must increase our military spending; and our economic relations have never been as strong as they are now.”

That thinking has not changed, although the relationship with Trump has evolved in light of the war in Ukraine.

Orbán genuinely believed he could function as a bridge between the two presidents. In the end, however, the idea of a Budapest summit remained just a dream, because Orbán could not guarantee any real chance of successful negotiations.

The Pavlovic Today: J.D. Vance and the Trump administration endorsed Orbán. Why didn’t Hungarian voters listen to the United States?

Simoni: Citizens of a sovereign state do not like being told what to do by foreign actors, especially when those actors come from Washington. I believe Vance and Trump misread the Hungarian situation. They underestimated how strong the headwinds against Orbán had become, and their intervention ultimately had little to no impact.

When U.S. presidents involve themselves—quietly or not—in European electoral politics, it has rarely produced victories in recent years.

One can think of Italy’s 2016 constitutional referendum, when then–Prime Minister Renzi was hosted by Obama at a state dinner in what was widely seen as an attempt to signal support; or Brexit, which Obama opposed but which ultimately prevailed at the ballot box.

The Pavlovic Today: Is Meloni next to go?

Simoni: Italy’s next elections are scheduled for 2027, and alliances, political blocs, and the overall landscape are still far from defined.

Two considerations: First, it is unclear who will emerge as the opposition leader—or whether a clear figure will emerge at all—to challenge Meloni. There will certainly be no Italian equivalent of “Péter Magyar.” Second, Meloni has been in power for four years, not sixteen, and I do not see any widespread “Meloni fatigue” among Italian voters.

Moreover, unlike Orbán, Meloni has shown solidity in foreign policy. Despite early predictions to the contrary, she has largely aligned with major European positions, while still expressing some differences.

That said, if I were advising the Italian prime minister politically, I would suggest “canceling” any trips to and from Washington in 2027.

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