President Donald Trump is turning his trade deal attention to Serbia. In a letter obtained by The Pavlovic Today, the president says he is ready to strike a trade deal or impose a 35% tariff on all Serbian imports to the U.S. starting Aug. 1, 2025. But, like in all things Trump, here’s the twist: the tariff threat is really a deal offer — New York-style.
THE ASK — Open your markets. Drop the trade barriers. Get reciprocal. Or the tariffs go into effect.
In the letter, sent from the White House to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on Monday, Trump lays it out:
“It is a Great Honor for me to send you this letter in that it demonstrates the strength and commitment of our Trading Relationship, and the fact that the United States of America has agreed to continue working with Serbia, despite having a significant Trade Deficit with your great Country.”
WHY THE TRUMP SERBIA TRADE DEAL MATTERS? — The higher tariffs global policy will begin Aug. 1, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said yesterday, adding that Trump is “setting the rates and the deals right now.”
This is part of a broader “letter-or-trade-deal” push from Trump, who previewed the move yesterday during the press gaggle at Morristown Municipal Airport while standing next to Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick.
“It could be 12, maybe 15,” Trump said about the wave of trade letters going out this week. “You know, Secretary of Commerce right here, I guess Howard I would say it could be maybe as many as could be.”
Serbia, we’re told, is in the first batch — signaling its top priority for Trump. More letters to other countries are coming later in the week.
“A couple” are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. “And we’ve made deals also,” Trump added. “So we can have a combination of letters, and some deals have been made.”
THE FINE PRINT — Trump’s letter says the U.S.-Serbia relationship has been “far from Reciprocal,” and points to “longterm, and very persistent, Trade Deficits engendered by Serbia’s Tariff, and Non Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers.”
And here’s the warning:
“Starting on August 1, 2025, we will charge Serbia a Tariff of only 35% on any and all Serbian products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs. Goods transshipped to evade a higher Tariff will be subject to that higher Tariff.”
BUT WAIT — THERE’S A LOOPHOLE — Trump is offering Serbia a deal:
In his letter, Trump urges Vucic to “please understand” that the 35% tariff—if the deal falls through—is “far less” than what is needed to eliminate the trade deficit the United States has with Serbia.
“There will be no Tariff if Serbia, or companies within your Country, decide to build or manufacture product within the United States and, in fact, we will do everything possible to get approvals quickly, professionally, and routinely — In other words, in a matter of weeks.”
Trump also included a standard line he’s used before with countries like the U.K. and China. Retaliate? That’ll cost you.
“Whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 35% that we charge.”
THEN, THE UPDATE HAPPENED— Speaking from the White House just moments after the letter was sent, President Trump clarified that the Trump tariff letters delivered to countries including Serbia are “more or less final offers” — but not without room for negotiation.
“Some of them wanted to make a deal and wanted to be fair,” Trump said. “Others, perhaps, got a little bit spoiled.”
Asked if the Aug. 1 tariff date is firm, Trump replied:
“I would say firm but not 100% firm. If they call up and say we’d like to do something a different way, we’re going to be open to that.”
AND THEN—THE NEXT DAY, ANOTHER UPDATE: Letter means a deal!” President Donald Trump said Tuesday during a Cabinet meeting gaggle that countries—including Serbia—did not receive a threat but direct offers to negotiate a trade deal with the United States. With those words, he confirmed The Pavlovic Today’s scoop the trade letters sent to countries—including Serbia—were not ultimatums, but invitations to make a deal with the U.S. on new, reciprocal trade terms.
THE BIGGER PICTURE — Trump has been framing his tariff agenda as a national security issue since the day he announced his global policy shift.
“This Deficit is a major threat to our Economy and, indeed, our National Security!”
THE TAKEAWAY — Yet despite the tough talk about tariffs, reciprocation and retaliation, Trump remains, at his core, the dealmaker. That includes Howard Lutnick, who, as Trump often notes, “barely sleeps” as he hustles to finalize trade deals with multiple countries.
Trump’s letter ends not with a threat but with a teaser:
“If you wish to open your heretofore closed Trading Markets to the United States, and eliminate your Tariff, and Non Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers, we will, perhaps, consider an adjustment to this letter.”
And finally, the flourish:
“You will never be disappointed with The United States of America.”
***
This article has been updated to include President Trump’s latest comments.
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