“If we don’t win the midterms, they’re going to blame me,” President Donald Trump told supporters at a rally in Tennessee last month.
And he may have given them every reason to.
Trump has urged voters to “pretend” he is on the ballot, turning a congressional election into a test of his own political strength.
The Republican strategy was straightforward: Put Trump front and center, betting that his proven ability to attract voters would translate into support for the GOP. The calculation was particularly important for Republicans hoping to mobilize Americans who turn out for presidential elections but traditionally stay home during the midterms.
But not even Trump has a magic wand powerful enough to guarantee that Republicans will preserve their grip on Congress and maintain the coveted trifecta of the White House, House and Senate.
The problem for Trump is that the election is also a referendum on nearly two years of his second term. And history is not on his side. American voters have repeatedly used midterm elections to punish the party occupying the White House.
This year, the political conditions are particularly difficult for Republicans.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on the eve of Election Day put Trump’s approval rating at just 32 percent, while Democrats led Republicans 46 percent to 38 percent on the question of which party voters preferred to control Congress.
Add the war with Iran, rising fuel prices, mounting pressure on household budgets and some of the administration’s most controversial policies, and the ingredients for a Democratic electoral wave are firmly in place.
Still, a Democratic wave is not inevitable. A national polling advantage does not automatically translate into congressional victories, particularly in closely contested states and districts.
One plausible outcome is a divided government, with Democrats capturing at least one chamber of Congress and bringing an end to Republican control of all three branches of elected federal political power.
For Trump, the stakes are personal as well as political. He wanted voters to imagine his name on the ballot.
Now he may have to live with the verdict.
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