Six months before the midterm elections, Donald Trump is discovering that a second term does not make a president immune to the old rules of politics. Prices matter. Wars matter. So does the public’s approval ratings. For Republicans, the danger extends beyond Trump’s legacy: a souring electorate could cost them power in the midterms and leave the party on the defensive heading into 2028.

A new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll puts Trump’s overall job approval at 37%, with 62% disapproving. The survey, conducted April 24-28 among 2,560 adults, shows a president underwater on every major issue tested: the economy, inflation, the cost of living, Iran, taxes, immigration and the border.

Only 34% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy; 65% disapprove. On inflation, the split is 27% to 72%. On the cost of living, it is 23% to 76%—the worst rating in the poll.

That is politically corrosive. Trump’s return to power in 2024 rested heavily on the promise that he could make life cheaper, stronger and more predictable. Yet voters now appear to be judging him by the same standard he used against his predecessor: the price of everyday life.

Iran has made matters worse. Trump returned to office presenting himself as the president who would keep America out of new wars. Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the situation with Iran by 66% to 33%. Relations with U.S. allies fare almost as poorly, with 65% disapproving. Foreign policy has rarely decided midterm elections on its own. But when a war is accompanied by higher gas prices and a souring economic mood, it becomes a domestic problem.

On immigration, 40% approve and 59% disapprove. On the U.S.-Mexico border, his best issue in the survey, he still falls short: 45% approve, 54% disapprove. The wall, literal or rhetorical, is no longer enough.

The White House will say polls have been wrong about Trump before. Often, they have been. His political career has been a long education in the limits of conventional wisdom. But these numbers are now tied to grocery bills, petrol prices, taxes, war Americans do not want to be involved in.

That is the trouble for Trump.

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