Is Trump here to stay? Will there be a second term?
365 days ago Donald Trump was elected as the President of the United States. Many thought that he would have left office or been impeached by now, but after a year of serving it can be assumed that President Trump is here to stay.
A year ago, I wrote an opinions piece assuming that Hilary Clinton would be elected. The New York Times calculated an 87% likelihood of Clinton winning the election. Yet, as the results rolled in it became utterly apparent that the next President of the United States would be Donald Trump.
Since that date, many major Obama era policies have been retracted or changed, the most recent of which concerning sexual assault reporting on college campuses. According to a recent article, many mothers of sons that have been wrongly accused of sexual assault are in support of Secretary DeVos’s decision. Yet, the theme of opposition and controversy that surrounds this administration is apparent in this decision as well.
What is the future of the United States? Will there be a second term? What is President Trump’s next action going to be?
Honestly, it is impossible to infer what the future holds, especially in this current political climate. With animosity crossing both sides of the aisle, over contentious and serious issues, including gun control and healthcare, it is hard to know what is going to happen. Many wrongly assumed that the former Secretary Clinton would emerge victorious last November.
The election carried important lessons about assumptions, especially in the media. Even though many statistics proved otherwise, it is impossible to quantify human emotions and feelings. People voted how they best saw fit. The outcomes were not accurately predicted. This is not the fault of the mathematical models that outlined and supported the predictions. Instead, it is vital to note the uncertainty of human behavior, especially on that large of a scale. In this sense, we as a country must become accustomed to political uncertainty. Drastic change is inevitable, yet no one can predict what will cause said change, or when it will happen.
A second term seems unlikely, but similar to the popular cliché “never say never.” President Trump has already won an election after making mistakes that would have been detrimental to candidates in the past. According to CNN, President Trump’s approval rating currently hovers around 36%, a significant drop from the 44% at his 100-day mark. This contention could be a result of many different underlying factors. Many of President Trump’s original voters still agree with what he is currently doing. Although, those who are not apart of his original base are continually waning in support.
Unpredictability is a constant theme throughout the campaign, election results and current decision making in Washington D.C. An important lesson presented itself one year ago when former Secretary Clinton conceded the election to our current President, and that is to never assume largely assume or overgeneralize human behavior.
Many voters were fed up with the system and political climate and opted for a change. An outsider. Someone who wasn’t a politician. This desire carries with it both benefits and detriments, as does any candidate.
After a year of grappling with the current political climate and the fact that President Trump is here to stay, it is time to exhale. Let go of the assumptions that were presumed prior to the election results being confirmed. Look ahead towards the future, whilst remembering the past. Take away lessons learned from one of the most contentious campaigns in American history.